Economic news

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The short and long term economic effects of the pandemic”

So, I was reading this article on the Regina Leader-Post website: “Tourism industry looking for ways to come together amid pandemic” by Greg Harder.

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In many ways, the article summarizes many of the impacts that COVID-19 is having in the short run on the Tourism industry in Regina, and potential impacts in the long run.
The article talks about declines in the hotel industry in the last several months, cancelling of concerts, cancelling of Agribition, cancelling of the Grey Cup in Regina.
For those of you from outside Regina, two very large events in the life of Regina.
BUT, it also talks about the need for a vaccine, and whether it will be enough.

 

One thing that economists are thinking about more and more is “economic scarring”.

What types of permanent (negative) effects will come about from COVID-19?
I think air travel will take years and even decades to recover.
People will be reluctant to travel even after a vaccine, due to worries about people not being vaccinated, and about new viruses.
Business travel will never be the same again – ZOOM meetings have shown how we can operate without it.
And people are poorer, and air travel is a luxury good they will go without.
Many businesses will go under if the lack of sales drags on – hotels and restaurants will go broke and close down, so we will have less of each in place.
A fair amount of new graduates and young workers (sorry) will have trouble finding those first career jobs that get them started on their career paths, making the transition to a career and to setting up families difficult, with all kinds of longer term effects.
In the Great Depression of the 1930s, one side effect was a much lower birth rate in Canada at that time. (Source: Canadian Encyclopedia, “Population of Canada”).
Another (anecdotal) result was that those who grew up in the 1930s (my grandparents) became much more cautious about the future.
And as I have mentioned before, the impacts of childcare issues have disproportionately fallen on the mothers in families, setting back their career paths and their options.

 

Of course, we will also see many potential positives as people look at a different future.

We may see a world where people take more care about their health, and about the environment.
We may see different patterns of work that emphasize technological solutions to many things, for good and bad.

 

What are your thoughts on the potential economic changes from the pandemic and its eventual end?”

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